US Tariff Pause Sparks Crypto Rally, But Bullish Momentum Remains Weak

At the end of this past week, the prices of cryptocurrencies witnessed a significant rally, which was largely attributed to eased trade tensions due to a tariff pause. Despite this somewhat bullish move, bearish market conditions still persist.

According to a weekly report from the market analytics platform CryptoQuant, bitcoin (BTC) has been in one of its least bullish phases since November 2022. The asset’s on-chain metrics signal that a sustained rally in the near term is unlikely.

BTC Rallies on Paused Tariffs

The week began with high volatility that triggered a sell-off that dragged bitcoin’s price from $84,000 to a five-month low of $74,000. Ether (ETH) also fell to its March 2023 low of $1,385 as China and the European Union imposed retaliatory tariffs against the United States.

By the middle of the week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China. During these three months, China will be subject to 125% tariffs while 10% will be imposed on other countries. The development triggered a rally among crypto assets, with BTC rebounding after touching its 365-day moving average; CryptoQuant said this level has acted as support in current and previous market cycles.

While BTC currently trades at $83,460, CryptoQuant believes it has found support at its 365-day moving average of $76,100. A sustained plunge below this level would signal the onset of a bear market.

Market Still in Bearish Condition

Although market sentiment improved after Trump paused the tariffs, it is worth noting that BTC has recorded its largest drawdown of this cycle – a 27% correction. Data from CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index shows the cryptocurrency is still in one of its least bullish phases in over two years.

As reported earlier by CryptoPotato, the Bull Score Index assesses bitcoin’s investment environment by evaluating nine on-chain indicators and one market metric. The model measures the conditions of the metrics from 0 to 100, with the former being bearish and the latter being bullish.

The index has now fallen to 10 after hovering around 20 since mid-March; a continued stay below 40 indicates weak investor sentiment and the beginning of a bear market. Besides that, only one metric is flashing bullish signals in the metric, which is the price of BTC hovering above its 365-day moving average. The remaining nine have mostly been bearish since February 23, when BTC was still changing hands at $96,000.

Meanwhile, analysts have marked the $84,000 and $96,000 levels as resistance zones if BTC continues its ascent in the coming days.