Key Takeaways Kalshi’s $100K-in-2026 contract rose from 17% on Sept. 16 to 43% on Sept. 22, then eased to its current level of 34%. Polymarket prices the same Dec. 31 target at 34.5%, while its March 2027 contract sits near 50%. BTC peaked just above $97,000 in January and needs a roughly 20% rally from $83,100 by Dec. 31. The Round Trip, Date by Date The contract in question is Kalshi’s “How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?” market, and its $100,000 strike has had a busy September. Daily closing prices, which sit at 34 cents, mean a 34% implied …