Key Takeaways CME’s Fedwatch tool puts a Sept. 16 federal funds rate (FFR) hike at 57%, versus just 39.9% on Aug. 21. Polymarket and Kalshi price a Fed hold at 52%, exposing a razor-thin September split. Warsh flagged 3.7% PCE inflation as traders brace for the Fed’s September decision. The real action is now centered on the Fed’s Sept. 16 federal funds rate decision. CME’s Fedwatch Tool, which turns federal funds futures trading action into implied policy odds, gives a 25-basis-point hike a 57% chance, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4%. Staying parked at the current 3.5%-3.75% range gets just …