Key Takeaways Kalshi gives a Senate CLARITY Act vote before Oct. 1 a 91% chance. Polymarket puts 2026 CLARITY Act passage at 13% after $11.5M traded. Lummis faces a Sept. 15 Senate test with a 60-vote cloture hurdle. The split is hard to miss. At the time of writing, Kalshi traders price a Senate vote before Oct. 1 at 91%, while Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act an extremely low shot at becoming law this year. Image source: Kalshi on Aug. 31, 2026. Traders expect senators to show up and vote, but prediction market money says Congress probably will not finish …