Protests in Tel Aviv demand an end to the war with Iran, while missile strikes from Yemen and explosions in Lebanon increase tensions. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is down to 1% YES, falling from 12% a week ago.
The April 7 sub-market is stagnant, with odds dropping due to ongoing military actions. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week, indicating bleak prospects for a quick resolution. The April 30 odds are at 17.5% YES, down from 40%, showing traders don’t expect tensions to ease soon.
Trading shows $22,948 in USDC traded daily on the April 7 market, with $12,367 needed to move the price by 5 points, indicating a market easily swayed by smaller trades. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, showing volatility as traders react to events.
Military escalations make a ceasefire by April 7 unlikely. The bearish trend across all sub-markets signals traders’ pessimism amid rising hostilities. At 1¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire would pay $1, a 100x return, but requires believing in a near-impossible diplomatic breakthrough in just four days.
Watch for CENTCOM’s next briefing and any statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar for signs of a diplomatic shift. Without de-escalation or new peace talks, the probability of a ceasefire will stay low.
Markets Impacted
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