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The final IRL event of BitBulaga 2025 provided a comprehensive breakdown of the current crypto market cycle. Leading content creators Tito Vlogs, Kuyang Gerome, and Crypto4Chun, alongside GCrypto Head Luis Buenaventura, clarified the industry’s volatile movements in 2025 and offered bold predictions for what lies ahead in 2026.
A Recap of 2025: Events that ‘Make or Break’ the Market
In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) shattered multiple all-time high records. During his presentation, Gerome Lazaro (a.k.a. Kuyang Gerome) presented a timeline identifying the key catalysts behind this surge:
- Early 2025 (The Trump Effect): The market opened the year on a positive note following the election of Donald Trump, who is known for his pro-crypto stance.
- March (Strategic Reserve): The rally continued as the Trump administration announced plans to create a national crypto stockpile or treasury.
- July (The GENIUS Act): BTC hit a new all-time high in mid-year. Lazaro attributed this to the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which established federal rules for payment stablecoins. This regulatory clarity encouraged giant companies to begin adding BTC to their corporate treasuries.
- September (Fed Rate Cuts): In August, the market speculated on an interest rate cut, which the Federal Reserve confirmed on September 17. However, instead of a pump, many investors followed the “sell the news” principle, taking profits once the speculation was confirmed.
- October (The $126k Top): The market eventually responded positively, pushing BTC to its current record high above the $126,000 mark in early October.
Then came August, when the market speculated a possible interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which happened on September 17.
Late 2025 to Early 2026: A Bearish Turn?
Following the October highs, the market faced headwinds due to a U.S. Government shutdown. Lazaro explained that this event reintroduced FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) into the ecosystem.
- Fear: Caused by the government shutdown.
- Uncertainty: Stemming from the Federal Reserve’s next moves, with Lazaro citing an 18% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut.
Lazaro predicts that the “Doubt” phase will likely hit in 2026:
“I am expecting that the ‘doubt’ part will occur in the market somewhere in 2026. My prediction is that BTC will go down between the $40,000 and $37,000 price range. We can probably see the bottom next year. The market can go broke, possibly by up to 50%.”
Aldrin Rabino (a.k.a. Crypto4Chun) supported this view, explaining in his own presentation that a market bounce-back would take months to materialize and is unlikely to happen before the end of 2025.
The Big Question: What Happened to Alt Season?
Despite BTC’s multiple rallies, 2025 did not see a widespread “Alt Season.” Only a few altcoins recorded new all-time highs, leading the audience to ask: Is this cycle different due to institutional adoption?
The panelists were unanimous: The crypto market cycle remains the same but:
Gilbert Lazaro (a.k.a. Tito Vlogs) argued that while the four-year cycle is intact, the environment has changed.
- 2021 Cycle: The COVID-19 pandemic locked investors at home, funneling liquidity into crypto.
- 2025 Cycle: The global economy is open. Liquidity is now competing with travel and lifestyle expenses.
“In this cycle, instead of putting their money into crypto, investors travel instead… Cryptocurrency investments already have competitors because there are more avenues where their money can be put.”
Gilbert Lazaro (Tito Vlogs)
Luis Buenaventura added that while institutional adoption is a key differentiator, it hasn’t changed the fundamental psychology of the market.
“It is the same cycle. But the players in today’s cycle are bigger… It is a big factor that there are institutions that are investors… but there is still the same fear and greed that runs the market.”
Luis Buenaventura
Final Advice: How to Navigate 2026
- Take Profits: Kuyang Gerome advised investors to exit positions “little by little” as prices rise.
- Trust the Cycle: Tito Vlogs reminded investors not to panic.
“If you understand that it is a cycle, you need to gain profit. Do not be afraid because you will have a lot of time to buy again when the market goes down. What is good with BTC is that its four-year cycle is easier to predict compared to other assets.”
Gilbert Lazaro (Tito Vlogs)
What is BitBulaga?
This article is published on BitPinas: BitBulaga 2025: Wins, Misses, and Bold Forecasts for 2026
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