The analyst sees the 50-week EMA as the dividing line, with multiple closes above it needed to strengthen the bullish continuation case.
XRP is still stuck in a narrow range of around $1.46-$1.56, but an analyst has said that the compression may be about to break into a bigger move.
If the token can break out and hold its resistance, the analyst predicts a bullish path to $1.80-$2, but if it dumps below support, it could drop down to the low $1.30s or worse.
XRP Remains Trapped Between Support and Resistance
In a video shared on October 7, ChartNerd described XRP’s current structure as neutral, with price squeezed between descending resistance and horizontal support. The token has spent about a week trading between $1.46 and $1.56 after failing to reclaim its previous $1.70 high, leaving a lower high beneath the earlier peak.
Previous upside wicks have also produced false breakouts, making confirmation especially important. As such, ChartNerd wants to see XRP break resistance, return to test that level as support and then push through the local high before treating the move as a confirmed continuation.
A breakout could matter because the market is already sitting close to several technical decision points. XRP was around $1.47 at the time of writing, down 1.5% in 24 hours and nearly 2% across seven days, while its 30-day performance remains positive at close to 5%. Trading volume also rose almost 32% to around $2.14 billion over the past day.
ChartNerd’s bullish setup uses the September 16 low near $1.25 and the $1.69-$1.70 high to project Fibonacci extensions. A successful breakout could put $1.80 to $2 in view, with around $2.05 as a further possibility. But resistance near $1.65 and $1.69 still needs to be cleared.
Weekly Averages Leave Room for a Deeper Retrace
The weekly chart is where the analyst sees the clearest dividing line, considering XRP has been capped by its 50-week EMA for seven weeks, while the rising 20-week EMA is acting as support.
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According to him, a sustained move through the 50-week EMA, particularly with multiple weekly closes above it, would strengthen the bullish setup, and he also pointed to $1.35 as immediate weekly support, while a loss of the 20-week EMA could open a deeper move toward $1.20 to $1.10.
The broader market data adds another wrinkle, with about 1.6 billion XRP flowing into Binance over the previous 30 days, the highest such inflow since March. Those transfers do not prove selling, but continued exchange inflows alongside weakening price could add pressure.
XRP’s spot ETFs have meanwhile recorded $1.79 billion in cumulative net inflows as of October 6, including $3.14 million that day.
